埃及證明顛覆可以很簡單 中南海要失眠 (圖)

Simpson給予埃及革命高度評價。他說，推翻穆巴拉克與一九八九年以蘇聯為首的東歐社會主義集團的垮臺有著同樣的歷史意義。這表明一個似乎可以維持幾十年的堅固的制度其實不堪一擊。埃及軍事獨裁也表現了同樣的脆弱。 看中國網站 禁止建立鏡像網站 。

他還說，一直堅持不下臺的穆巴拉克為什麼突然下臺？有兩個原因。一個原因是：一直尷尬無助、猶豫旁觀的美國終於彙集了美國人的權力和影響迫使埃及軍隊逼穆巴拉克下臺。另一個原因是：埃及軍隊分裂。 看中國網站 禁止建立鏡像網站 。

他最後說，埃及是五千年集權國家，以前埃及人民從沒能選擇他們自己的政府。今天的埃及革命會影響中東其他國家，這下子那些中東的獨裁者可睡不安穩了。

三妹也說說：其實，我們這些關心埃及革命的中國人都看得很清楚。美國只要施加影響，埃及軍隊就會聽從。但是美國卻一直被埃及示威者推著走，直到穆巴拉克昨天電視講話強硬表示不下臺，激起埃及示威者的極大反彈而群起圍堵總統府後，美國才急速明確表態。美國表態雖然太慢了點，不過還算及時。總算是皆大歡喜。埃及百姓這個笑啊，跳啊，還有什麼比自由更令人瘋狂的？穆巴拉克說什麼穆斯林兄弟會是恐怖主義組織？埃及人以自己的和平行動告訴世界，埃及幾百萬人上街遊行十八天，現在幾百萬人在街上狂歡，沒有任何恐怖主義。看到這些和平可愛、欣喜若狂的人們，我以為我會激動地哭，但我一點都哭不出來，只是跟著電視直播裡的埃及百姓笑不停。

美國下一步會幫助埃及進行真正的民主轉型，這回是玩真格的了。我相信美國以後不會再猶疑不決了。哈哈--哈。高興！

編後按：BBC專稿：《18天推倒穆巴拉克》

此文說埃及軍隊的中下層軍人是和百姓站在一起的，示威者爭取到他們的同情，這對埃及革命的成功起了決定性作用。而埃及軍隊的上層則支持穆巴拉克。

此文還說，當支持穆巴拉克的團夥由警方和軍方送到解放廣場攻擊示威者時，卻受到示威者更為激烈的反擊。

此文還說，埃及發生的一切也說明，這裡發生的事情，在世界其他國家一樣可以發生。周密的計畫和領導並不重要，最重要是，唯有需要具備埃及人所表現出來的勇氣。

Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader

By John Simpson World Affairs Editor,

11 February 2011 Last updated at 18:12 ET

BBC News, Cairo

Egyptians are celebrating the fall of President Mubarak after 18 days of protests

In its way the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak is as significant as the collapse of the Soviet bloc in Eastern Europe back in 1989.

That showed that a system which seemed to be fixed and stable and likely to endure for decades was in fact brittle and fragile. Egypt's military dictatorship has been shown to be similarly feeble.

It took just 18 days to overthrow a proud, elderly man who had pitted himself stubbornly against the will of millions of Egyptians.

Egypt's army found itself right in the middle, unwilling until the very end to force President Mubarak to go, yet deeply opposed to clearing the demonstrators out of Tahrir Square by sheer force.

'Military cracks' 軍隊分裂

So why has Mr Mubarak gone now after insisting that he would stay until the presidential elections in six or seven months time?

Two main reasons. The Americans - who had been embarrassed, helpless, onlookers - finally summoned up all their power and influence to force the Egyptian military to get rid of Mr Mubarak.

But there was something else. The military leaders realised that cracks were starting to appear in the army's structure. Many junior officers, ordinary soldiers, sided with the demonstrators. The generals backed the president who was one of their own.

Many soldiers sided with the demonstrators

There is a historical echo to this. In the 1952 revolution against the monarchy, some senior officers supported the king, while younger ones like Colonel Gamal Abdul Nasser backed the coup.

Nasser became president after sweeping his boss, General Naguib, aside. Since Nasser, there has only been two presidents in Egypt, Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak.

For sixty years this country has been a military dictatorship backed by a nasty secret police force. Finally, no doubt reluctantly, the army leaders have brought Nasser's system to an end.

It would never have happened though had it not been for the tremendous fortitude of the tens of thousands of people who took control of Tahrir Square and refused to leave.

On Friday 28 January, the police attacked them with bricks, iron bars, and live ammunition.

They would not be budged.

When gangs of tough, determined Mubarak supporters were bussed in by the police and army to wrest control of the square from them, the demonstrators fought back with even greater ferocity.

The gangs slowly retreated and were eventually driven out of the side roads around the square - after that they disappeared altogether.

Right from the start the soldiers who were sent in to discourage the demonstrators from taking over the square showed themselves to be clearly sympathetic. That, in the end, proved decisive.

'Could happen anywhere'

The extraordinary scenes in Cairo tonight - with the streets, avenues, and bridges jammed with hooting cars and excited flag-waving people - are a sign of the relief and pride which the crowds now feel.

The US - one of Egypt's biggest allies - pressured the army to get rid of Mr Mubarak

This was a victory for them in a country where people have habitually been obliged to do what their political masters told them.

Now they have the prospect of voting for their own leader in the coming presidential election.

In Egypt's 5,000 years as a unitary state, these people have never been able to choose their government before.

Will the army let it happen? It is hard to think now that they could prevent it. The people who have taken control of their cities and their country once know how to do it again. It would be foolhardy for the army to try to stop them.

What has happened here in Egypt can happen anywhere. In Libya, in Iran, in Algeria, in Syria. It does not take leaders and it does not take a well-organised conspiracy.

It simply takes courage of the kind the demonstrators have shown in Egypt.

The leaders of dictatorships in the Middle East and way beyond should not sleep easy after this.
 

来源:aboluowang

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